Trey Lance is the first prospect we will be talking about as we prepare our journey for the 2021 NFL Draft. Why did we start here? Well to me Trey Lance is the most interesting quarterback prospect this draft. We already know that Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields look to be superstars at the next level. Yet Trey Lance is kind of a wildcard due to the limited amount of information we have on him. So let us look at what Trey Lance has to offer NFL teams.
College: North Dakota State
Height: 6 “3”
High School Recruit: 3 star prospect, 49th overall ranked by 247 Sports
When looking solely at his stats people would love to see quarterback numbers like his. In 2019 he threw the ball for 2786 yards and had an incredible 28 touchdowns to 0 interception. Trey Lance also clearly showed an ability to rush the ball as he added 1100 yards and 14 touchdowns. His 66.9% completion percentage was solid and his overall body of work helped raised his stock. Yet in his lone game this season he had a mere 50% completion percentage with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.
There are several big things you notice about Trey Lance when he plays. The first is his ability to be a dual threat quarterback. Without even watching him play just looking at those stats show it. He is not only mobile but he has a quickness to him that allows him to make a big play any time he touches the ball. He also is very tough to be taken down to his size. Trey Lance also has incredible deep ball accuracy. Lance has a powerful arm and often places the ball with touch. His arm strength looks very strong as well as he has shown an ability to fire passes in the short game and along the sideline. Trey Lance also showed incredible poise during his 2019 season and there was not much to nick pick in terms of game tape. He makes quality decision and protects the football.
The things that could work against Lance is potential inexperience and lack of a sample. When looking at his 2019 season the one thing that is often talked about is the lack of competition. Of course playing on the top team in the FCS he had the better supporting cast every single game. Many people including myself have to bring that into account when debating how high he can be drafted in 2021.
There is also the issue of his performance during the only 2020 game against Central Arkansas. When looking at the tape of his performance it was clear he was rusty. Of course having the offseason college football has had one can expect a little rust. At around 35 seconds we see Lance miss a wide open receiver. Yes there was pressure but with a receiver that wide open he could have put a little more touch on it. At around 2 minutes 15 seconds we see another pass that sails on his receivers. He also sailed a pass on play action at 3:20 off the play action where he felt the pressure. This could be due to an issue of his mechanics as several throws on the tape has his hips not completely squared up.
It also looked for some reason in this game he often missed several reads. Often on play action it looked like he was holding the ball to much. This was shown on the first play of the game, the fumble at 50 seconds and the interception at 6 minutes. On the interception it looks like he read the coverage wrong. The receiver had an opportunity to keep running the seem with the safety not playing deep. Whether its lack of continuity with his receiver or not he missed it.
There is no denying the potential you see in Lance from his 2019 season. After watching the 2019 tape you understand why there is so much hype. He has a very solid and accurate arm and looks the mold of an NFL quarterback. Yet after watching his film from this past game I started to get a bit worried about his status as a higher 2020 draft prospect. He showed some inconsistencies in his game verse Central Arkansas with all the spotlight on him. Whether it was due to an unusual offseason or actual mechanical issues it did not help his draft stock. Not to mention with several guys having the ability to improve their draft stack Lance could fall by not playing. For now I still feel Lance is an extraordinary prospect and first round talent. Yet the gap is closing and he could fall.